Self Regulation - The Rise of the Black Swan.

The Black Swan Event

"An event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict. The event is a surprise, the event has a major effect."

This term was popularised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor and former Wall Street trader.

The situation is clear. 

On one side we have people, their livelihoods and resources. These people have evolved over thousands of years learning to adapt in the face of adversity and peril, and cultivate resources required to advance or sustain. These people have learned how to live longer. Medical service provision and technologies have grown hyperbolically, lifestyles have changed, health economics are widespread and regenerative and anti-aging drugs have seen tremendous investment. Population growth in unprecedented, and, as documented in this blog, many of these people are living in increasingly dangerous territories. More people are living in cities, more people are living in coastal developments, and the more people are placing enormous pressures on global resources. Energy consumption, particularly fossil fuel exploitation is at unsustainable levels. Food production is strained and water resources are drying up. Yet, this pressure is fuelling a population of over 7 billion people. Will this unprecedented growth of humans, and their control over the Earth system become under increasing regulation? 

On the other side of this delicate equilibrium are events or measures that keep this population and their business in check. This blog has discussed 'natural' hazards. As we the human race continue to modify the climate system we risk grappling with natures forces at levels not seen before. Hazards are changing, and so is the vulnerability of humans. We have managed to increase the risk of both our position and the hazard. Tropical cyclones are becoming stronger, extratropical cyclones more unpredictable, flooding more intense and irregular, earthquakes have been triggered by man, decertification and drought cripples resources, weather systems are altered. Whilst high frequency events are less able to penetrate the human advances and defences, the 'tail events' or 'Black Swann' events have the power and destructive capabilities to obliterate our battle against risk and vulnerability. Consider the implications a category one hurricane had on NYC last year. A Category 4 storm is predicted to cause over 500 billion dollars of loss. Consider the implications of predicted sea level rise on Amsterdam,  an eruption of Mount Rainer on Seattle, and earthquakes in Tokyo or Istanbul. Megaclusters of population are becoming an increasingly large ticking time bomb for Black Swan events to wipe them off the map. Perils not considered in this blog include global pandemic influenza, mass casualty terrorism or pandemic disease. All of these have the potential to cause mass destruction of population in an increasingly interconnected world. 

People have evolved, hazards have evolved and risk has evolved. Never has the world and its ill-prepared population been been more susceptible to an unexpected Black Swan event. 

The main idea in Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict black swan events, but to build robustness against negative ones that occur and be able to exploit positive ones. Will societally take note of the warning signs. Will REAL long term action be take in lieu of Hurricane Sandy and Katrina, 9/11, SARS, AIDS, Tohoku, the Indian Ocean Tsunami, the China floods, and Haiti. At the moment, the evidence is scarce.